HUMANA IS THE COMPANY THAT HAS TO BE EVALUATED
You can use the forecast or tweak as needed. Use the numbers to run a sensitivity analysis and provide a baseline stock valuation investment thesis using 9/20 as you stock price date and a 1-year time frame. The quality of your investment thesis will be judged as much on the validity of your assumptions as on the mechanics of the forecasting process. Do not get so involved in the mechanics of how the spread sheet formulas are created and forget to apply common sense to your forecasts.
This report should be no more than 5 pages (outside of the financial model and appendix materials) and should cover the components listed below. The weight placed on each section as it relates to grading is shown within the parenthesis.
I. InvestmentThesis (30%).
Summarize the bet you are making in two or three sentences. How can Johns Hopkins Endowment make money on this company (e.g.earnings growth, multiple expansion,restructuring,etc.)?What is your level of conviction?
II. Investment Positives and Risks (20%). Focus on the 3-5 most critical risks and prioritize the list.
III. Financial Model .Explain thees sence of the financial model(key drivers) (15%)
IV. Valuation. Use a valuation approach and come up with acurrent valuation (35%).Place current valuation into perspective with his toric trends, the industry and the market, if possible.Consider an alternative valuation technique such as a discounted cash flow,comparable companies,and private companies.Perform at least one sensitivity/scenario analysis.
Valuation analysis,here are some pointer stoke ep in mind around your Investment Thesis and some other critical component so f your final paper. Final paper should be 5 pages max. Feel free to submit prior to the deadline.
1) Summarize the bet you are making in just two or three sentences . Answer the question:“How can JHU make money in this stock?” For example,is this?
– an earnings growth story
– a multiple expansion story
– an undiscovered value idea
– acyclical recovery
– are structuring
Is it a high-,medium-,or low-conviction name?
2) Makeyourspecific recommendation.
– Tell JHU where to buy the stock,including any tactical considerations.
– Giveyour1Gyearpricetarget,andanydownside considerations 3) Investment Positives and Risks
Focus on the issues that are critical to the investment.Be judicious by highlight in g the issues most likely to move the stock.
– Distill the issues to no more than 3G 5 positives and 3G5 risks.Summarize each factor with a single openings statement and provide several sentences of support.
– Prioritize the lists from most important to least,and try to assess the likelihood—and impact—of any risks.