\n1. Suppose that you were thinking about opening a new restaurant. What type of information
\nwould you use to go about forecasting demand and sales?
\n2. Why is process thinking important in operations management? Thinking of yourself as an
\n?operations manager? for your education, describe the processes you would put in place to
\nimprove your performance as a student.
\n3. If a manager asked you whether to use time series forecasting models or regression-based
\nforecasting models, what would you tell him or her?
\nMini Case ? answer the questions at the end of the case below
\nTri-Metro Investments: Forecasting Help Desk Demand by Day<\/p>\n
?Hello, is this the Investment Management Help Desk?? said a tired voice on the other end of the telephone
\nline at 7:42 am. ?Yes, how can I help you?? said Thomas Bourbon, customer service representative (CSR).
\n?I?ve got a problem. My best customer, with investment assets of over $10 million in our bank, received her
\nmonthly trust account statement. She says we computed the market value of one of her stocks inaccurately
\nby using the wrong share price, which makes her statement $42,000 too low. I assured her we would
\nresearch the problem and get back to her by the end of the day. Also, do you realize that I waited over four
\nminutes before you answered my call?? said the trust administrator, Claire Woodworth. ?Ms. Woodworth,
\ngive me the customer?s account number and the stock in question, and I will get back to you within an hour.
\nLet?s solve the customer?s problem first. I apologize for the long wait,? said Bourbon in a positive and
\nreassuring voice.
\nThe Help Desk supports fiduciary operations activities worldwide by answering questions from company
\nemployees, such as portfolio managers, stock traders, backroom company process managers, branch bank
\nmanagers, accountants, and trust account administrators. These internal customers originate over 98 percent
\nof the volume of Help Desk inquiries. Over 50 different internal processes and organizational units call the
\nHelp Desk. Some external customers such as large estate trust administrators are tied directly to their
\naccounts via the Internet and occasionally call the Help Desk directly.
\nThe Help Desk is the primary customer contact unit within fiduciary operations, employing 14 full-time
\ncustomer service representatives (CSRs), three CSR support employees, and three managers, for a total of 20
\npeople. The three CSR support employees work full-time on research in support of the CSRs answering the
\ntelephone.
\nThe Help Desk handles about 2,000 calls a week and the pressure to reduce unit cost is ongoing. Forecast
\naccuracy is a key input to better staffing decisions that minimize costs and maximize service. The
\naccompanying table shows the number of calls per day (Call Volume).
\nThe senior manager of the Help Desk, Dot Gifford, established a team to try to evaluate short-term
\nforecasting. The Help Desk Staffing Team consists of Gifford, Bourdon, Woodworth, and a new employee
\nGail Hamlet, who has an undergraduate degree in business management from Mount Saint Vincent
\nUniversity. This four-person team is charged with developing a long term forecasting procedure for the
\nHelp Desk. Gifford asked the team to make an informal presentation of their analysis in 10 days. The
\nprimary job of analysis has fallen on Hamlet, the newly hired operations analyst. It is her chance to make
\ngood impression on her boss and colleagues.
\nIn trying to develop a longer-term forecasting procedure for their short-term forecasting, it is important to
\nanalyze qualitative information before rushing to calculate quantitative methods. Hamlet asks the team the
\nfollowing questions:
\n1. What are the service management characteristics of the CSR Job? Expand upon what you
\nbelieve would be the technical (operational), marketing, and human interactions skills the Help
\nDesk employees would have to have and\/or deal with in order for the team to properly plan a
\nprocedure for accurate forecasting.
\n2. What do you think the mission\/strategy of the Help Desk would be? Why is the Help Desk
\nImportant? Who are its customers?
\n3. How would you handle the customer affected by the inaccurate stock price in the bank?s trust
\naccount system? Would you take a passive or proactive approach? Justify your answer.
\n4. Using the data on call volume below, how would you forecast short-term demand? Show three
\nmethods: a) the average; b) a 2 period moving- for all 16 days – show your graph for the 2
\nperiod moving average; and c) exponential smoothing using a constant of 0.3.
\nDay Call
\nVolume
\n1 288
\n2 336
\n3 295
\n4 251
\n5 280
\n6 300
\n7 398
\n8 418
\n9 422
\n10 471
\n11 522
\n12 502
\n13 449
\n14 452
\n15 420
\n16 423<\/p>\n
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