Question\u00a01\tDetermine\u00a0the\u00a0error\u00a0for\u00a0each\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0following\u00a0forecasts.\u00a0Compute\u00a0MAD\u00a0and\u00a0MSE.\tPeriod\u00a0Value\u00a0Forecast\u00a0Error\t1\t2\t3\t4\t5\t6\t7\t8\t9\t10\t11\tQuestion\u00a02\t202″\ufffd\u00a0“\ufffd\u00a0191\u00a0202\t173\u00a0192\t169\u00a0181\t171\u00a0174\u00a0175\u00a0172\u00a0182\u00a0174\u00a0196\u00a0179\u00a0204\u00a0189\u00a0219\u00a0198\u00a0227\u00a0211\tThe\u00a0U.S.\u00a0Census\u00a0Bureau\u00a0publishes\u00a0data\u00a0on\u00a0factory\u00a0orders\u00a0for\u00a0all\u00a0manufacturing,\u00a0durable\u00a0goods,\u00a0and\u00a0nondurable\u00a0goods\u00a0industries.\u00a0Shown\u00a0here\u00a0are\u00a0factory\u00a0orders\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0United\u00a0States\u00a0over\u00a0a\u00a013-year\u00a0period\u00a0($\u00a0billion).\t1.\u00a0Usethesedatatodevelopforecastsfortheyears6through13usinga5-yearmovingaverage.\t2.\u00a0Usethesedatatodevelopforecastsfortheyears6through13usinga5-yearweighted\u00a0moving\u00a0average.\u00a0Weight\u00a0the\u00a0most\u00a0recent\u00a0year\u00a0by\u00a06,\u00a0the\u00a0previous\u00a0year\u00a0by\u00a04,\u00a0the\u00a0year\u00a0before\u00a0that\u00a0by\u00a02,\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0other\u00a0years\u00a0by\u00a01.\t3.\u00a0Compute\u00a0the\u00a0errors\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0forecasts\u00a0in\u00a0parts\u00a0(a)\u00a0and\u00a0(b)\u00a0and\u00a0then\u00a0the\u00a0MAD.\u00a0Which\u00a0forecast\u00a0is\u00a0better?\t1.\u00a01\u00a0\u00a02,512.7\t2.\u00a02\u00a0\u00a02,739.2\t3.\u00a03\u00a0\u00a02,874.9\t4.\u00a04\u00a0\u00a02,934.1\t5.\u00a05\u00a0\u00a02,865.7\t6.\u00a06\u00a0\u00a02,978.5\t7.\u00a07\u00a0\u00a03,092.4\t8.\u00a08\u00a0\u00a03,356.8\t9.\u00a09\u00a0\u00a03,607.6\t10.\u00a010\u00a0\u00a03,749.3\t11.\u00a011\u00a0\u00a03,952.0\t12.\u00a012\u00a0\u00a03,949.0\t13.\u00a013\u00a0\u00a04,137.0\tQuestion\u00a03\tThe\u00a0“Economic\u00a0Report\u00a0to\u00a0the\u00a0President\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0United\u00a0States”\ufffd\u00a0included\u00a0data\u00a0on\u00a0the\u00a0amounts\u00a0of\u00a0manufacturers’\u00a0new\u00a0and\u00a0unfilled\u00a0orders\u00a0in\u00a0millions\u00a0of\u00a0dollars.\u00a0Shown\u00a0here\u00a0are\u00a0the\u00a0figures\u00a0for\u00a0new\u00a0orders\u00a0over\u00a0a\u00a021-year\u00a0period.\u00a0Use\u00a0Excel\u00a0to\u00a0develop\u00a0a\u00a0regression\u00a0model\u00a0to\u00a0fit\u00a0the\u00a0trend\u00a0effects\u00a0for\u00a0these\u00a0data.\u00a0Use\u00a0a\u00a0linear\u00a0model\u00a0and\u00a0then\u00a0try\u00a0a\u00a0quadratic\u00a0model.\u00a0How\u00a0well\u00a0does\u00a0either\u00a0model\u00a0fit\u00a0the\u00a0data?\tYear\u00a0Total\u00a0Number\u00a0of\u00a0New\u00a0Orders\t1.\u00a01\u00a0\u00a055,022\t2.\u00a02\u00a0\u00a055,921\t3.\u00a03\u00a0\u00a064,1\u00a082\t4.\u00a04\u00a0\u00a076,003\t5.\u00a05\u00a0\u00a087,327\t6.\u00a06\u00a0\u00a085,139\t7.\u00a08\u00a0115,109\t9.\u00a09\u00a0\u00a0131,629\t10.\u00a010\u00a0\u00a0147,604\t11.\u00a011\u00a0\u00a0156,359\t12.\u00a012\u00a0\u00a0168,025\t13.\u00a013\u00a0\u00a0162,140\t14.\u00a014\u00a0\u00a0175,451\t15.\u00a015\u00a0\u00a0192,879\t16.\u00a016\u00a0\u00a0195,706\t17.\u00a017\u00a0\u00a0195,204\t18.\u00a018\u00a0\u00a0209,389\t19.\u00a019\u00a0\u00a0227,025\t20.\u00a020\u00a0\u00a0240,758\t21.\u00a021\u00a0\u00a0243,643<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Question\u00a01 Determine\u00a0the\u00a0error\u00a0for\u00a0each\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0following\u00a0forecasts.\u00a0Compute\u00a0MAD\u00a0and\u00a0MSE. Period\u00a0Value\u00a0Forecast\u00a0Error 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Question\u00a02 202″\ufffd\u00a0“\ufffd\u00a0191\u00a0202 173\u00a0192 169\u00a0181 171\u00a0174\u00a0175\u00a0172\u00a0182\u00a0174\u00a0196\u00a0179\u00a0204\u00a0189\u00a0219\u00a0198\u00a0227\u00a0211 The\u00a0U.S.\u00a0Census\u00a0Bureau\u00a0publishes\u00a0data\u00a0on\u00a0factory\u00a0orders\u00a0for\u00a0all\u00a0manufacturing,\u00a0durable\u00a0goods,\u00a0and\u00a0nondurable\u00a0goods\u00a0industries.\u00a0Shown\u00a0here\u00a0are\u00a0factory\u00a0orders\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0United\u00a0States\u00a0over\u00a0a\u00a013-year\u00a0period\u00a0($\u00a0billion). 1.\u00a0Usethesedatatodevelopforecastsfortheyears6through13usinga5-yearmovingaverage. 2.\u00a0Usethesedatatodevelopforecastsfortheyears6through13usinga5-yearweighted\u00a0moving\u00a0average.\u00a0Weight\u00a0the\u00a0most\u00a0recent\u00a0year\u00a0by\u00a06,\u00a0the\u00a0previous\u00a0year\u00a0by\u00a04,\u00a0the\u00a0year\u00a0before\u00a0that\u00a0by\u00a02,\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0other\u00a0years\u00a0by\u00a01. 3.\u00a0Compute\u00a0the\u00a0errors\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0forecasts\u00a0in\u00a0parts\u00a0(a)\u00a0and\u00a0(b)\u00a0and\u00a0then\u00a0the\u00a0MAD.\u00a0Which\u00a0forecast\u00a0is\u00a0better? 1.\u00a01\u00a0\u00a02,512.7 2.\u00a02\u00a0\u00a02,739.2 3.\u00a03\u00a0\u00a02,874.9 4.\u00a04\u00a0\u00a02,934.1 5.\u00a05\u00a0\u00a02,865.7 6.\u00a06\u00a0\u00a02,978.5 7.\u00a07\u00a0\u00a03,092.4 8.\u00a08\u00a0\u00a03,356.8 9.\u00a09\u00a0\u00a03,607.6 10.\u00a010\u00a0\u00a03,749.3 11.\u00a011\u00a0\u00a03,952.0 12.\u00a012\u00a0\u00a03,949.0 13.\u00a013\u00a0\u00a04,137.0 Question\u00a03 The\u00a0“Economic\u00a0Report\u00a0to\u00a0the\u00a0President\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0United\u00a0States”\ufffd\u00a0included\u00a0data\u00a0on\u00a0the\u00a0amounts\u00a0of\u00a0manufacturers’\u00a0new\u00a0and\u00a0unfilled\u00a0orders\u00a0in\u00a0millions\u00a0of\u00a0dollars.\u00a0Shown\u00a0here\u00a0are\u00a0the\u00a0figures\u00a0for\u00a0new\u00a0orders\u00a0over\u00a0a\u00a021-year\u00a0period.\u00a0Use\u00a0Excel\u00a0to\u00a0develop\u00a0a\u00a0regression\u00a0model\u00a0to\u00a0fit\u00a0the\u00a0trend\u00a0effects\u00a0for\u00a0these\u00a0data.\u00a0Use\u00a0a\u00a0linear\u00a0model\u00a0and\u00a0then\u00a0try\u00a0a\u00a0quadratic\u00a0model.\u00a0How\u00a0well\u00a0does\u00a0either\u00a0model\u00a0fit\u00a0the\u00a0data? Year\u00a0Total\u00a0Number\u00a0of\u00a0New\u00a0Orders 1.\u00a01\u00a0\u00a055,022 Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-217228","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217228","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=217228"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217228\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=217228"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=217228"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=217228"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}