BUS 520 M4C-RISK: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING AND VALUE OF INFORMATION<\/p>\n
RISK: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING AND VALUE OF INFORMATION
Assignment Overview
Scenario: You are still a consultant for the Excellent Consulting Group. You have completed the first assignment, developing and testing a forecasting method based on linear regression (Last assignment) However, your consulting manager at ECG wants to go the next step and investigate another forecasting method. It is important to do a thorough job for the client, and you have the expertise to analyze different forecasting methods. You have decided to look at the sales data for client\u2019s lottery app as a single data set and use a time series analysis, namely SES, single exponential smoothing.
Case Assignment
Using Excel, use the forecasted sales from order 81626060 to compute the MAPE, by doing the following:
1. Calculate the MAPE for the first 12 months (assume the forecast for Month 1 \u2013 or January \u2013 is equal to January\u2019s actual sales). Use 0.15 and 0.90 alphas.
2. Using the forecasted sales for Feb \u2013 April (taken from ORDER 81626060 Linear Regression exercise), compute the MAPE by comparing actual sales for each month, or Y(t) to forecasted sales, or F(t). Compare this 3-month MAPE to the two MAPE values you calculated in your SES analysis above. Use the following table:
Month Sales, Y(t) Sales F(t) Y(t) \u2013 F(t) PE APE
February ? ? ? ? ?
March ? ? ? ? ?
April ? ? ? ? ?
? ? ?
ME MPE MAPE<\/p>\n
Then write a report to your boss that briefly describes the results that you obtained. Using MAPE values, make a recommendation on which method appears to be more accurate \u2014 SES or Linear Regression.
Data: Use the data that you previously have generated from your analyses in Case 3.<\/p>\n
Assignment Expectations
Analysis
\u2022 Accurate and complete SES analysis in Excel.
Written Report
\u2022 Length requirements = 4\u2013pages (not including Cover and Reference pages)
\u2022 Provide a brief introduction\/ background of the problem.
\u2022 Complete and accurate Excel analysis.
\u2022 Written analysis that supports Excel analysis, and provides thorough discussion of assumptions, rationale, and logic used.
\u2022 Complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s).
PLEASE INCLUDE WORD AND EXCEL DOCUMENT
Please include reference page<\/p>\n
Watch this video that shows how to do SES and calculate MAPE: https:\/\/permalink.fliqz.com\/aspx\/permalink.aspx?at=75d6cc75bbe742159e56ad8836531c1d&a=5fae3cf0f1624f39b0341263a6541ea0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BUS 520 M4C-RISK: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING AND VALUE OF INFORMATION RISK: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING AND VALUE OF INFORMATION Assignment Overview Scenario: You are still a consultant for the Excellent Consulting Group. You have completed the first assignment, developing and testing Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-185439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185439","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=185439"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185439\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=185439"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=185439"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.benedictsol.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=185439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}